A regional beverage distributor lived and died by seasonality — summer terraces, holidays, and sports events. Every spring they over-bought lines that looked strong last year but were already in a downward velocity phase.
The situation
Marketing wanted depth; finance wanted turns. Buyers referenced last year's sell-through in slides, not in ranked system outputs. Wrong preseason bets filled the warehouse before peak demand arrived.
What ERP data showed — but didn't say
Four years of weekly sales showed category phase shifts — not just year-ago totals. The ERP did not label which SKUs were entering a seasonal upswing vs carrying dead weight from the prior cycle.
Turning history into an action list
Flowra segmented SKUs by seasonal pattern and issued:
- Preseason reorder list weighted to upward velocity phases
- Clear-down list for lines still carrying cover from the prior season
- Week-by-week stockout risk for promo-linked SKUs
Leadership capped preseason PO spend to the reorder list until marketing exceptions were signed with evidence.
Results
- Preseason write-downs down 35% year over year
- Availability on promo SKUs up 11 points during peak weeks
- Planning meetings used one action deck instead of competing forecasts